SINGAPORE: The terms of reference laid out for the body reviewing Singapore’s electoral boundaries indicate the possible creation of a new Group Representative Constituency (GRC) and a Single Member Constituency (SMC), political observers told CNA.
This potential adjustment could come alongside an expected increase in the number of Members of Parliament, reflecting a rise in voter numbers since the 2020 General Election. Observers noted that the new GRC or SMC is likely to be established in areas with new housing developments and an accompanying influx of residents.
The Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) was convened by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Wednesday (Jan 22) to review constituency lines ahead of the next electoral contest, which must be held by Nov 23 this year.
Based on the timing of the committee's formation and precedents from previous election cycles, observers said this year's election will likely be in April or May.
The EBRC has been instructed to “keep the average size of GRCs, the proportion of Members of Parliament (MPs) elected from SMCs, and the average ratio of electors to elected MPs, all at about the same as that in the last General Election”.
This, said Assistant Professor Elvin Ong from the National University of Singapore's (NUS) political science department, was the key phrase in Wednesday's statement announcing the EBRC's formation.
In 2020, the average size of GRCs was 4.65 MPs.
SMCs contributed 15 per cent of the total number of MPs, with 14 out of 93.
The average ratio of electors to elected MPs eventually came up to 27,900 to one after the review, said Asst Prof Ong.
Singapore’s voter rolls were last updated in July last year, with 2,715,187 people eligible to cast their ballots at the next general election.
“If you want to keep to the same ratio, you need to elect at least 97 MPs,” said Asst Prof Ong, indicating an increase of 4 elected MP seats.
Dr Teo Kay Key, a research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, noted that the terms of reference called for the committee to “keep the proportion of MPs from SMCs, not the number”.
This means that if the overall number of MPs to be elected increases, the number of SMCs should also increase by a similar percentage, said Dr Teo.
To maintain the 15 per cent proportion of MPs from SMCs, 15 single-seat wards would be required. That leaves 82 seats among the GRCs.
To divide them according to the average of 4.65 MPs per GRC, a total of 18 GRCs would be needed on the electoral map.
“So the best prediction is at least one more GRC,” said Asst Prof Ong.
Singapore Management University's associate professor of law, Eugene Tan, agreed with the change in the number of GRCs. “For example, if four new seats are recommended, that can form one four-member GRC.”
Dr Teo noted that the changes could take place in electoral divisions experiencing “significant changes in elector numbers,” such as Tengah, which has recently seen the completion of new Build-to-Order housing projects and the arrival of new residents.
On Wednesday, the Elections Department also announced that the voter rolls would be revised in February, with the exercise to be completed by Apr 1.
Experts told CNA that while the revision will finalise who can vote in the election, the EBRC does not necessarily have to wait for it to be completed before releasing its final report.
“Ideally, the electoral register revision should be completed first before the EBRC report is submitted. But the authorities probably have a rough idea of the increase in voting population,” said Assoc Prof Tan.
If the EBRC report is released by the deadline, he added, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong could potentially call the election as early as Apr 1 itself.
Timeline of Singapore's general elections from 2006 to 2020, from when the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee was convened until Polling Day. (Infographic: CNA/Clara Ho)
Observers told CNA that the timing of the committee’s formation in January, at the start of the year, suggests a higher likelihood of the General Election taking place in the first half of 2025.
July would probably be too close to Singapore’s 60th National Day celebrations, noted Associate Professor Tan. He added that it is also unlikely for the current parliament to serve its full five-year term, which ends on Aug 23, making a General Election after August “very unlikely.”
“With the convening of the EBRC, it can wrap up its work within two to three months, which will also segue to April or May 2025 being one window for GE2025,” said Assoc Prof Tan.
From this point forward, political parties will need to ramp up their preparations for election campaigning, according to observers.
“This will involve organisational preparation, such as candidate recruitment and confirmation, alongside volunteer recruitment and training,” said Asst Prof Ong.
Administrative and logistical preparation will also be important, he added. This includes designing posters and campaign paraphernalia, securing printers for campaign materials and engaging lawyers to provide legal advice on electoral rules and procedures.
Parties will also have to look at their manifestos and campaign messages in preparation for the campaigning period once an election date is announced, said Dr Teo.
NUS associate professor of political science Chong Ja Ian suggested that parties should engage with voters in their targeted constituencies in ways that "insulate" them from changes in electoral boundaries.
“Given that it is a known fact that elections must legally take place in late November of this year, any political party worth its salt should have started to win over voters in a quiet campaign phase long ago,” he said.
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This potential adjustment could come alongside an expected increase in the number of Members of Parliament, reflecting a rise in voter numbers since the 2020 General Election. Observers noted that the new GRC or SMC is likely to be established in areas with new housing developments and an accompanying influx of residents.
The Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) was convened by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Wednesday (Jan 22) to review constituency lines ahead of the next electoral contest, which must be held by Nov 23 this year.
Based on the timing of the committee's formation and precedents from previous election cycles, observers said this year's election will likely be in April or May.
MORE SEATS TO SERVE MORE VOTERS
The EBRC has been instructed to “keep the average size of GRCs, the proportion of Members of Parliament (MPs) elected from SMCs, and the average ratio of electors to elected MPs, all at about the same as that in the last General Election”.
This, said Assistant Professor Elvin Ong from the National University of Singapore's (NUS) political science department, was the key phrase in Wednesday's statement announcing the EBRC's formation.
In 2020, the average size of GRCs was 4.65 MPs.
SMCs contributed 15 per cent of the total number of MPs, with 14 out of 93.
The average ratio of electors to elected MPs eventually came up to 27,900 to one after the review, said Asst Prof Ong.
Singapore’s voter rolls were last updated in July last year, with 2,715,187 people eligible to cast their ballots at the next general election.
“If you want to keep to the same ratio, you need to elect at least 97 MPs,” said Asst Prof Ong, indicating an increase of 4 elected MP seats.
Dr Teo Kay Key, a research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, noted that the terms of reference called for the committee to “keep the proportion of MPs from SMCs, not the number”.
This means that if the overall number of MPs to be elected increases, the number of SMCs should also increase by a similar percentage, said Dr Teo.
To maintain the 15 per cent proportion of MPs from SMCs, 15 single-seat wards would be required. That leaves 82 seats among the GRCs.
To divide them according to the average of 4.65 MPs per GRC, a total of 18 GRCs would be needed on the electoral map.
“So the best prediction is at least one more GRC,” said Asst Prof Ong.
Singapore Management University's associate professor of law, Eugene Tan, agreed with the change in the number of GRCs. “For example, if four new seats are recommended, that can form one four-member GRC.”
Dr Teo noted that the changes could take place in electoral divisions experiencing “significant changes in elector numbers,” such as Tengah, which has recently seen the completion of new Build-to-Order housing projects and the arrival of new residents.
TIMING OF THE ELECTION
On Wednesday, the Elections Department also announced that the voter rolls would be revised in February, with the exercise to be completed by Apr 1.
Experts told CNA that while the revision will finalise who can vote in the election, the EBRC does not necessarily have to wait for it to be completed before releasing its final report.
“Ideally, the electoral register revision should be completed first before the EBRC report is submitted. But the authorities probably have a rough idea of the increase in voting population,” said Assoc Prof Tan.
If the EBRC report is released by the deadline, he added, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong could potentially call the election as early as Apr 1 itself.
Timeline of Singapore's general elections from 2006 to 2020, from when the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee was convened until Polling Day. (Infographic: CNA/Clara Ho)
Observers told CNA that the timing of the committee’s formation in January, at the start of the year, suggests a higher likelihood of the General Election taking place in the first half of 2025.
July would probably be too close to Singapore’s 60th National Day celebrations, noted Associate Professor Tan. He added that it is also unlikely for the current parliament to serve its full five-year term, which ends on Aug 23, making a General Election after August “very unlikely.”
“With the convening of the EBRC, it can wrap up its work within two to three months, which will also segue to April or May 2025 being one window for GE2025,” said Assoc Prof Tan.
NEXT STEPS FOR PARTIES
From this point forward, political parties will need to ramp up their preparations for election campaigning, according to observers.
“This will involve organisational preparation, such as candidate recruitment and confirmation, alongside volunteer recruitment and training,” said Asst Prof Ong.
Administrative and logistical preparation will also be important, he added. This includes designing posters and campaign paraphernalia, securing printers for campaign materials and engaging lawyers to provide legal advice on electoral rules and procedures.
Parties will also have to look at their manifestos and campaign messages in preparation for the campaigning period once an election date is announced, said Dr Teo.
NUS associate professor of political science Chong Ja Ian suggested that parties should engage with voters in their targeted constituencies in ways that "insulate" them from changes in electoral boundaries.
“Given that it is a known fact that elections must legally take place in late November of this year, any political party worth its salt should have started to win over voters in a quiet campaign phase long ago,” he said.
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